BTC Price Prediction: Will $104K Hold as Springboard to $200K?

#BTC

• Technical Support: Bollinger Bands and MACD suggest $101K-$104K is a high-probability bottom zone
• Market Sentiment: Conflicting headlines create volatility but institutional adoption continues growing
• Macro Factors: Fed policy and geopolitical risks may cause short-term fluctuations without breaking key support

BTC Price Prediction

BTC Technical Analysis: Key Indicators Point to Potential Rebound

According to BTCC financial analyst Michael, Bitcoin's current price of $104,552 sits below its 20-day moving average ($105,798), suggesting short-term bearish pressure. However, the MACD histogram shows deepening negative values (-811), which often precedes trend reversals. Bollinger Bands indicate the price is testing the lower band ($101,876), a level that historically provides strong support.

"When we see BTC testing the lower Bollinger Band while MACD shows extreme divergence," Michael notes, "it typically signals an oversold condition. The $101K-$104K zone could FORM a bottom before the next upward move."

Market Sentiment: Mixed Signals Amid Macro Uncertainty

BTCC's Michael highlights conflicting signals from recent headlines: "While ETF inflows have declined 47%, we're seeing institutional DeFi adoption accelerating past $50B TVL. The Ohio tax exemption and Bitvault's $2M stablecoin initiative demonstrate growing mainstream acceptance."

Geopolitical tensions and Fed rate decisions appear to be creating what Michael calls "a stability sandwich" - short-term volatility between longer-term support levels. "The $200K surge predictions contrast with current caution," he observes, "but post-halving supply dynamics favor bulls."

Factors Influencing BTC's Price

Bitcoin Leverages Drop: Is $104K the Bottom Before the Next Bull Run?

Bitcoin's momentum reflects growing institutional and retail adoption, with major corporations increasingly integrating the cryptocurrency into their financial strategies. The asset is now perceived as a viable store of value and investment vehicle, signaling its maturation in global markets.

BTC currently trades at $104,491.88, showing minimal 24-hour volatility with a 0.02% dip. Trading volume declined 2.94% to $51.74 billion, while the weekly chart reveals a 4.84% correction. This price action suggests a consolidation phase following months of heightened volatility, as market participants await clearer directional signals.

Derivatives markets show notable deleveraging, with the 180-day Open Interest Delta turning negative. Bitget leads exchange-specific reductions with a $7.42 billion OI decline, followed by CME's $3.93 billion drop. These metrics indicate traders are unwinding speculative positions amid uncertain market conditions.

Ohio House Approves Bill Exempting ‘Bitcoin Users’ From Minor Tax Burden

The Ohio House of Representatives has advanced the Blockchain Basics Act, a legislative proposal that would grant crypto users a $200 capital gains tax exemption. The bill also seeks to protect digital asset holders by prohibiting state and local governments from restricting cryptocurrency payments or interfering with self-hosted and hardware wallets.

Residential and industrial crypto mining operations would receive additional safeguards under the proposed law. Mining businesses in industrial zones could continue operating if they meet existing requirements, while local governments would be barred from rezoning areas with mining operations without proper notice and comment periods. The bill now moves closer to potential enactment by Governor Mike DeWine.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Drop 47% Amid Market Caution as BTC Price Slides

Bitcoin ETFs saw a sharp decline in investor interest as BTC's price downturn triggered broader market caution. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $216 million on Tuesday—a 47% drop from the previous day's $412 million. While inflows remained positive, the slowdown reflects waning institutional momentum.

Bitcoin's intraday price fell to $103,371, extending a 2% loss and fueling anxiety across crypto markets. The sell-off coincided with reduced leverage in BTC futures, where open interest dropped 3% to $70.24 billion. Traders are unwinding positions rather than doubling down.

The trend underscores how price volatility directly impacts capital flows into crypto investment vehicles. ETF enthusiasm, once a bellwether for institutional adoption, now mirrors the hesitancy of traditional traders navigating uncertain markets.

Bitcoin Surges Past $105K Amid Geopolitical Tensions and Oil Supply Fears

Bitcoin reclaimed the $105,000 threshold as geopolitical instability in the Middle East rattled global markets. Iran's abrupt restrictions on oil tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for 20% of the world's crude—ignited fears of a supply shock, driving capital toward alternative stores of value.

The move signals a deliberate escalation by Tehran, leveraging control over a critical trade chokepoint. Analysts warn Brent crude could spike to $130 per barrel if tensions culminate in a blockade, with JPMorgan forecasting a potential 5% U.S. CPI surge under such scenarios.

OPEC+'s planned 400,000-barrel daily production hike appears insufficient to calm markets, as structural demand outpaces incremental supply adjustments. The crisis underscores Bitcoin's hardening role as a geopolitical hedge, with institutional flows accelerating during traditional market dislocations.

Bitcoin's Ancient Supply Growth Outpaces Daily Issuance Post-Halving

Bitcoin's "ancient supply"—coins unmoved for at least a decade—is now growing faster than newly minted BTC, according to Fidelity Digital Assets. Since April 2024, an average of 566 BTC daily entered this cohort, surpassing the 450 BTC added by miners. This scarcity signal emerges less than a year after the 2024 halving slashed issuance by 50%.

Over 17% of all mined Bitcoin (3.4 million BTC worth $360 billion at $107,000/BTC) now sits in this dormant category, up from near-zero in 2019. While Satoshi Nakamoto's 33% share dominates the stash, analysts caution any "lost" coins could re-enter circulation.

Volatility persists despite holder conviction. The 10-year supply declines on just 3% of days, but post-2024 U.S. election churn quadrupled sell pressure, with ancient supply shrinking on 10% of recent trading days.

Bitcoin Surge Toward $200K Looks Unstoppable Right Now

Bitcoin is showing signs of a bullish reversal, with key resistance levels identified at $106K, $109K, and $119K. The cryptocurrency's recent price action suggests growing buyer confidence, supported by technical indicators like the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.

Tether's minting of 1 billion USDT has sparked speculation about fresh capital inflows into Bitcoin markets. Historical patterns suggest such events often precede significant price surges, adding to the bullish sentiment.

Market participants are closely watching the upcoming FOMC meeting, as macroeconomic developments could accelerate Bitcoin's breakout. Currently trading at $104,474, Bitcoin has seen a slight 1.19% dip in the last 24 hours despite maintaining a $2.07 trillion market cap.

Bitdeer Seeks $330 Million via Convertible Notes Amid Stock Decline

Singapore-based Bitcoin miner Bitdeer Technologies Group is attempting to raise $330 million through a convertible notes offering, marking a significant capital raise as its stock continues to underperform. The upsized private placement comes with a 4.875% coupon and 2031 maturity, with closing expected by June 23.

Unlike MicroStrategy and other crypto-native firms that routinely convert debt proceeds into Bitcoin purchases, Bitdeer explicitly stated it won't deploy these funds for BTC accumulation. Nearly 40% of the capital ($129.6 million) will instead fund zero-strike call options, with another $36.1 million allocated to unspecified operational expenses.

The market has punished Bitdeer's equity throughout the fundraising process, with shares extending their monthly decline to 23% on Wednesday. This contrasts sharply with competitors like Riot Platforms and CleanSpark, whose stocks have rallied alongside Bitcoin's price recovery this quarter.

DeFi Lending Protocols Surge Past $50B in TVL as Institutional Adoption Accelerates

Decentralized finance is undergoing a quiet revolution. Gone are the days of unsustainable yields and speculative mania—today's DeFi growth stems from becoming the invisible plumbing of finance. Lending protocols now hold nearly $60 billion in assets, marking a 60% annual increase according to Artemis and Vaults.fyi.

The sector's maturation is evident in Morpho's infrastructure powering Coinbase's BTC-backed loans, and Aave's dominance among institutional players. "These aren't yield casinos anymore," the report suggests, "but modular financial networks where risk management tools attract serious capital."

A new "DeFi mullet" paradigm emerges—fintech user experiences with decentralized backends—as $300M+ flows into abstracted yield products. The institutionalization wave shows no signs of abating, with lending protocols becoming the foundation for next-generation financial applications.

Bitcoin’s Reaction to War: Stability Amidst Short-Term Volatility

Bitcoin's price action during geopolitical crises reveals a pattern of initial volatility followed by rapid stabilization. The asset often dips as panic selling ensues, only to recover as markets digest new information. Currently, Bitcoin remains resilient, holding above $100,000 after a retreat from $109,000.

The geographic context of conflict plays a critical role in Bitcoin's response. Wars in regions with developed financial infrastructure—such as the Middle East, Europe, or the U.S.—exert more influence than localized conflicts in less connected nations. This disparity stems from Bitcoin's uneven global adoption, with high on-chain activity in emerging markets like India and Nigeria, while institutional ownership consolidates in the West.

Institutional involvement has transformed Bitcoin's market dynamics. By late 2024, ETFs alone accounted for 1% of Bitcoin's supply, surpassing even Satoshi's holdings. Major players like BlackRock, the U.S. government, and Coinbase now dominate the landscape, tethering Bitcoin closer to traditional finance.

Bitvault Secures $2M Funding to Launch Bitcoin-Backed Stablecoin Ecosystem

BitVault, a DeFi protocol specializing in Bitcoin-backed financial infrastructure, has raised $2 million in a pre-seed round led by GSR, Gemini, Auros, and Keyrock. The funding will accelerate the launch of bvUSD, a stablecoin collateralized by Bitcoin derivatives, and its yield-bearing counterpart sbvUSD.

The protocol aims to provide a decentralized alternative to fiat-backed stablecoins like USDC, leveraging institutional-grade trading strategies from market makers like GSR. "Bitcoin was built for moments of fracture," said Core Contributor Michael Kisselgof, emphasizing the team's focus on creating deep liquidity for BTC-native monetary instruments.

This development signals growing institutional interest in Bitcoin's DeFi applications, positioning bvUSD as a potential challenger to both traditional and algorithmic stablecoin models. The involvement of liquidity providers like GSR and Auros suggests strong market-making support for the new assets.

Bitcoin Holds Steady as Fed Maintains Interest Rates Amid Inflation Watch

The Federal Reserve held its key interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.5% on June 18, opting for caution amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience, trading at $104,110 with a minor 24-hour dip of 0.66%, while the global crypto market cap edged up to $3.23 trillion.

Policymakers emphasized data-dependent future adjustments, citing robust job growth and modest inflation progress. Market expectations aligned with the decision, as CME Group data reflected a 99.9% probability of unchanged rates—despite White House pressure for cuts. Oil price volatility and Middle East conflicts further complicated the economic outlook.

Former President Trump renewed criticism of Fed Chair Powell, underscoring political tensions surrounding monetary policy. Crypto traders maintained cautious optimism, with BTC's stability signaling decoupling from traditional market jitters.

Will BTC Price Hit 100000?

Based on current technicals and market sentiment, BTCC's Michael believes BTC has strong support between $101,876-$104,552:

"The $100K psychological level should hold unless macroeconomic conditions deteriorate significantly," Michael states. "We're more likely to see a rebound toward $110K than a breakdown below six figures."

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